Big picture
With Afghanistan going down narrowly to Australia, Sri Lanka have no hope of making the semi-finals. New Zealand are already on seven points following their win against Ireland. Australia have now matched that tally.
The good news for them is that bad weather is not forecast for Sydney on Saturday (another washout would rule them out). The better news is that their net run rate is well clear of Australia’s, so all they need to do is win, by any margin. The even better news is that Sri Lanka have not beaten England since 2014. None of the likely Sri Lanka players have any memory of defeating England in a T20I. England have won their last seven encounters, spread over four countries.
Although the bad losses to Australia and New Zealand put major dents in Sri Lanka’s World Cup campaign, a victory against England to finish will have them heading home upbeat. This is still a young team, and though they perhaps didn’t quite live up to their dark-horse billing, they will have salvaged something out of a rough tournament, in which they lost their best quicks very early, and have been pinballed around Australia more than most other teams.
Form guide
England WLWWW (last five completed T20Is, most recent first)
Sri Lanka WLLWW
In the spotlight
In the three matches he’s played at this tournament, Adil Rashid has been wicketless. He hasn’t bowled badly exactly – getting through his four overs nicely, and even going at only a run a ball against Ireland. He’s just not made a breakthrough, when perhaps you’d have expected him to be much more of a threat through the middle overs. He’s playing against one of his favourite opponents now, however. In seven matches against Sri Lanka, Rashid has nine wickets, and an economy rate of 5.91. Sri Lanka’s batters have become better at playing legspin recently, but on a worn Sydney pitch, Rashid may still back himself.
Lahiru Kumara has five wickets from five matches in this tournament, and has seemed an improved bowler from the one who played last year’s T20 World Cup. But England’s batters, who enjoy the ball coming on, may prove a serious test, particularly in the death overs. It seems likely that outside the powerplay, England will have plans to put pressure on Kumara.
Pitch and conditions
There is only an outside chance of rain. The surface will be worn – two matches having been played on it already. This should suit the spinners, of whom Sri Lanka have a superior contingent. England’s quicks know how to take the pace off the ball too, though.
Team news
Sri Lanka may go with the same XI that beat Afghanistan, though there may be some thought to bringing back allrounder Chamika Karunaratne.
Sri Lanka (possible): 1 Kusal Mendis (wk), 2 Pathum Nissanka, 3 Dhananjaya de Silva, 4 Charith Asalanka, 5 Bhanuka Rajapaksa, 6 Dasun Shanaka (capt), 7 Wanindu Hasaranga, 8 Pramod Madushan, 9 Maheesh Theekshana, 10 Kasun Rajitha, 11 Lahiru Kumara
England are likely to retain the side that beat New Zealand.
England (possible): 1 Jos Buttler (capt & wk), 2 Alex Hales, 3 Dawid Malan, 4 Ben Stokes, 5 Liam Livingstone, 6 Harry Brook, 7 Moeen Ali, 8 Sam Curran, 9 Chris Woakes, 10 Mark Wood, 11 Adil Rashid
Stats and trivia
- Of the bowlers who didn’t play the first round, only Anrich Nortje has more wickets (10) than Curran’s nine. Nortje’s average and economy rates are worse, though.
- But then no one has more wickets than Wanindu Hasaranga, who’s got 13 from the seven games he’s played. He was the last World Cup’s top wicket-taker too. More breakthroughs in Sri Lanka’s final match will put some distance between him and the rest of the field.
- When Sri Lanka last beat England, at the Oval in 2014, TM Dilshan was still opening the innings, and James Tredwell was England’s lead spinner.
Andrew Fidel Fernando is ESPNcricinfo’s Sri Lanka correspondent. @afidelf