Afghanistan
Matches 1, Points 0, NRR -0.589, Remaining games: vs Pakistan and India
If Afghanistan lose to Pakistan, they will be eliminated [along with India]. If they beat Pakistan but lose to India, they will have to hope Sri Lanka beat Pakistan on Friday, so that three teams are tied on one win each.
If Afghanistan win both matches, they will qualify for certain if Sri Lanka defeat Pakistan on Friday. If Sri Lanka lose to Pakistan, then three teams will be level on two wins, and net run-rate will come into play.
India
Matches 2, Points 0, NRR -0.125, Remaining game: vs Afghanistan
India’s only chance of making the final is if Sri Lanka finish with three wins, and the three other teams have one win each. In that case, the team with the best NRR among Afghanistan, India and Pakistan will take on Sri Lanka in the final.
For India to qualify, Pakistan will have to lose both their remaining matches, against Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, while India will need to beat Afghanistan on Thursday. If Pakistan beat Afghanistan, both India and Afghanistan will be eliminated.
Pakistan
Matches 1, Points 2, NRR 0.126, Remaining games: vs Afghanistan and Sri Lanka
If Pakistan beat Afghanistan, they will qualify for the final along with Sri Lanka. If they lose on Wednesday and beat Sri Lanka on Friday, they will still qualify if India beat Afghanistan on Thursday. However, if Afghanistan win both their remaining games, then Pakistan will need to beat Sri Lanka and hope that their NRR is in the top two.
If Pakistan lose both their remaining matches, they will have to hope India beat Afghanistan, in which case three teams will have one win each. NRR will then decide the second finalists.
Sri Lanka
Matches 2, Points 4, NRR 0.351, Remaining game: vs Pakistan
Sri Lanka are sitting pretty with two wins out of two. The only way they can fall short is if they lose to Pakistan, and Afghanistan beat both Pakistan and India. In that case, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Afghanistan will all finish on two points each, with NRR deciding which two teams qualify. For that to happen, though, Afghanistan will have to beat Pakistan and India on successive days at two different venues.
S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats