Big picture
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouf.” – Mike Tyson (quote reproduced here in the original Tysonian)
In the age of intense scheduling pressure from franchise tournaments, and bilateral white-ball fixtures, this was as clear an approach to a Test series as Sri Lanka has had in years.
Essentially, it comes down to whether Sri Lanka’s batters can compete in the first innings. If they are blown away, as they had been on the two previous occasions, New Zealand will likely control the game. Even if they don’t, New Zealand might back themselves to make huge ground in the back end of the game, having just beaten England after being asked to follow on.
Form guide
New Zealand WLDDL (last five Tests, most recent first)
Sri Lanka WLWLW
In the spotlight
Pitch and conditions
The surface is likely to start off green, as they often do at this venue. Towards the end of the match, however, it is likely to flatten out. There is some rain forecast for the first two days.
Team news
New Zealand are likely to have a four-man seam attack, consisting of captain Tim Southee, Neil Wagner, and probably Matt Henry and Blair Tickner.
New Zealand (probable): 1 Tom Latham, 2 Devon Conway, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Henry Nicholls, 5 Daryl Mitchell, 6 Tom Blundell (wk), 7 Michael Bracewell, 8 Tim Southee (capt), 9 Matt Henry, 10 Neil Wagner, 11 Blair Tickner
Sri Lanka may consider fielding Lahiru Kumara for his pace, but his tendency to break down in Test matches may sway them towards the more reliable options of Vishwa and Asitha.
Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Oshada Fernando, 2 Dimuth Karunaratne (capt), 3 Kusal Mendis, 4 Angelo Mathew, 5 Dinesh Chandimal, 6 Dhananjaya de Silva, 7 Niroshan Dickwella, 8 Vishwa Fernando, 9 Kasun Rajitha, 10 Prabath Jayasuriya, 11 Asitha Fernando
Stats and trivia
- Sri Lanka have won only two of their 19 Tests in New Zealand. Since their last win in 2006, they have lost five of their six Tests in the country.
- If Sri Lanka win the series 2-0, they give themselves a chance of making the World Test Championship final. But even then, India would have to lose or draw their last Test against Australia for Sri Lanka to be in contention.
- New Zealand have not won a single series in this World Test Championship cycle. The last time they completed a Test series victory at home was in early 2021.
“We pride ourselves as a team in trying not to get too high or too low – to try and stay level. All that’s in the past. We’ve got another Test match to focus on. At the end of the season you sit down and have a beer and reflect on those moments. It all feels like a bit of blur, but you’ve got to put it behind yourself now.”
New Zealand seamer Neil Wagner, on how the team is looking to focus on Sri Lanka, following the spectacular Test against England in Wellington.
“Often we tour New Zealand in December, but this time we are here in March, when it’s warmer. I think this pitch will get drier faster and there will be some support for the spinners from earlier in the game. Even in the England-New Zealand series, the spinners had taken some wickets. There’s a big chance that a spinner will play in the XI, in addition to Dhananjaya de Silva.”
Sri Lanka captain Dimuth Karunaratne on fielding a specialist spinner in the XI.
Andrew Fidel Fernando is ESPNcricinfo’s Sri Lanka correspondent. @afidelf